RBA Rate Hike to 4.10% — 4 Forces Reshaping Australian Property in 2026
Alex ShangPublished on: 18/03/2026
The RBA raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17, 2026, reversing three cuts made in 2025 that had taken rates from 4.35% down to 3.60%. The board voted 5:4 — the closest split on record — yet every member agreed rates needed to rise. The reversal caught the market off guard. Between February and August 2025, the RBA cut three times. Then on February 3, 2026, it flipped and hiked to 3.85%. Within six months Australia went from a cutting cycle straight back into hikes. By March, ASX futures priced a 70% probability of a further increase. Reuters polled 30 economists and 77% called a hike. All four major banks — CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ — forecast the same path: March to 4.10%, May to 4.35%.
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